000 AXNT20 KNHC 280542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF S OF 26N W OF 94W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 22N93W AT 28/0300 UTC. THIS GALE WARNING AREA WILL BE REDUCED TO WITHIN 60 NM OF COAST OF VERACRUZ AT 28/1200 UTC...AND TERMINATED AT 29/0300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 8N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 4N24W TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A GALE IS OVER THE SW GULF. SEE ABOVE. A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF AT 25N85W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N94W. OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA 20-30 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF THE TROUGH TO INCLUDE THE NORTH GULF STATES. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 83W-87W MOVING W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 32N103W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W WITH CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO EXTEND S FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 22N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 83W-87W MOVING W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS E OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA ...AND HONDURAS. MORE SHOWERS ARE S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 80W-84W. LASTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND LIGHT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N71W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N32W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 50W-60W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 26N10W PRODUCING SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N48W TO 24N56W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE N FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA