000 AXNT20 KNHC 271805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N15W TO 4N26W 3N36W AND 4N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 17W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE LINE 11N64W 17N62W 24N56W 26N46W 21N32W 14N21W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 64W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEST TEXAS 30N103W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND 24N107W IN MEXICO. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ALSO SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1031 MB TEXAS 32N98W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 27N101W IN NORTHERN MEXICO...TO 20N98W IN MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 24N88W AND 26N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF 24N81W 24N87W 22N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N94W...TO 22N96W AND 25N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 92W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES... KMZG...KGUL...KATP...KIPN...LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT KMYT. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT... KBQX...KGVX...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...LIGHT RAIN...AND DRIZZLE COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS... VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR SO WITH FOG AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN COVERING THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM GALVESTON AND HOUSTON NORTHWARD...AND FOR MANY OF THE LAST OBSERVATIONS IN THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS IN MOBILE ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF PERRY. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N96W TO 19N93W. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM VENEZUELA TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD BY THE COMBINATION OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N65W CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR HAITI...FEW LOW CLOUDS IN PORT-AU-PRINCE. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...BEING TO THE WEST OF AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE EAST AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE WEST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...FIRST WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE...AND THEN WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 3N80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS SOLELY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N50W 29N60W 27N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 28N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...S OF 18N E OF 42W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE E OF LINE FROM 31N42W TO 29N43W TO 16N59W TO 11N60W TO 07N56W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL...MIXED N AND NE SWELL E OF 50W. WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 27N72W TO 31N57W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT