000 AXNT20 KNHC 261755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA ALONG 6N11W TO 4N15W 4N27W 3N29W AND 3N45W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 5N33W 13N39W 16N52W 22N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 30W. HIGH CLOUDS CURVE ANTICYCLONICALLY IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN MEXICO ALONG 105W/106W. ANOTHER MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO ALONG 15N99W 7N102W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ALSO SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 28N100W...TO 22N99W AND 19N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS AND CENTRAL PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N83W 25N85W 23N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 88W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N96W 20N94W TO MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE WEST OF 90W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES... KVBS FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...IT IS RAINING AT THE STATIONS THAT ARE MORE INLAND/COMPARATIVELY MORE TO THE WEST IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM A PORT LAVACA-TO-PALACIOS LINE SOUTHWARD. HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT AND THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT ARE REPORTING HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS. SUGARLAND IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE CHARLES AREA AND IN THE LAFAYETTE AREA OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN...MOBILE IN ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN PENSACOLA...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD...IN VALPARAISO...AND IN PANAMA CITY. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM APALACHICOLA TO MARIANNA TO TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA GORDA AND NAPLES. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N94W TO 25N97W. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 270 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N66W...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM VENEZUELA TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N69W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...15N70W. HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD BY THE COMBINATION OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 20N66W CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 5N33W 13N39W 16N52W 22N57W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.15 IN TRINIDAD. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED TO FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...WITH RAINSHOWERS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...BEING TO THE WEST OF AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH A DIFFERENT AND SEPARATE TROUGH. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW AFTER 30 HOURS...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N78W AND 4N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS SOLELY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 36 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 30N57W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N57W TO 27N65W 27N73W...ACROSS ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHERNMOST TIP OF FLORIDA/THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 27N60W 26N70W 24N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.03 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR TOTAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC WAS 0.10 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N19W OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N TO THE EAST OF 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N27W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N43W TO 12N61W TO 06N51W. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N57W 27N65W 25N81W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET WITHIN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N67W TO 31N59W TO 24N74W TO 30N73W TO 31N67W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT