000 AXNT20 KNHC 260553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU DEC 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 06N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N13W TO 04N30W TO 04N44W TO 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 18W-30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 31W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN TEXAS THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG 104W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION. PRIMARILY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGHING IS ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM MEXICO TO THE SE CONUS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ARE INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF NW OF A LINE FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION OF FLORIDA SW TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS AREA IS LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE...HOWEVER THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ACROSS THE SE GULF...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS... GENERALLY N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND FRONT QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE MID-ATLC WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT W OF 70W. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-82W...AND ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE COASTS...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...S OF 20N W OF 85W. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N65W. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INDUCING BROAD-SCALE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 12N69W TO 25N68W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. WHILE THE SURFACE FEATURE REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W-65W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE FEEDS NORTHWARD INTO FRONTAL TROUGHING BETWEEN 50W-70W IN THE WESTERN ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AS THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN AND TO THE NORTH ONLY TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BETWEEN 70W-80W LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A RE-ESTABLISHED BERMUDA HIGH. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED TO THE E-SE NEAR 17N65W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS CARRYING THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 29N69W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOTED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 32N56W TO 25N61W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 25N-34N BETWEEN 50W-63W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONTAL TROUGHING AND GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 55W- 65W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN