000 AXNT20 KNHC 251804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED DEC 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA ALONG 6N11W 5N20W 5N34W AND 3N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 29N70W TO 26N76W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 26N76W... THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS JUST TO THE NORTH OF ANDROS ISLAND...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. THE FRONT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N86W TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 18N90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W 27N70W...TO 23N81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.09 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO 28N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... CURVING TO A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N100W IN MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES... KMZG...KBQX...KATP...KSPR...AND KMYT. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KGVX... KVAF...KEMK DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS...KGUL...AND KVBS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM FALFURRIAS TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FROM PORT LAVACA AND SURROUNDING AREAS TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER CITIES. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS IN GALLIANO LOUISIANA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND AT TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES...AND LOW CLOUD/MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO KEY WEST. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N63W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND 21N65W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 8N69W IN VENEZUELA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 4N IN COLOMBIA TO THE EAST OF 80W...AND FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N67W...ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA...TO 11N69W IN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS IN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THEN IT MOVES TO 20N60W BY 48 HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS BASED ON THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT WITH TIME IN A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH STARTS ALONG THE LINE FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE. THE INVERTED TROUGH ENDS UP ALONG THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT THE END OF 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA STARTS AS NORTHEASTERLY...IT BECOMES PURELY CYCLONIC FOR MOST OF THE TIME...AND THEN IT ENDS AS SOUTHEASTERLY. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 16N70W 14N77W 10N80W...IN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.22 IN GUADELOUPE...0.78 IN TRINIDAD...0.53 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.42 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.09 IN BERMUDA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 6N78W 4N80W BEYOND 5N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS SOLELY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N19W OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 30W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N37W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT