000 AXNT20 KNHC 251145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED DEC 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 05N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N13W TO 04N20W TO 03N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 25W- 36W...AND FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 41W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING EAST OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 107W. WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY S-SW TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO GULF COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT EARLY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CARRY MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 14N70W TO 20N69W TO 26N66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS SW ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS CARRYING THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N67W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. FURTHER TO THE SE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-29N BETWEEN 57W-67W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN