000 AXNT20 KNHC 250543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED DEC 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 05N12W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N12W TO 04N23W TO 05N27W TO 02N44W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 31W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING EAST OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 109W. WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY S-SW TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO GULF COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ONLY TO BE REINFORCED EARLY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CARRY MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 11N69W TO 20N67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS SW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS CARRYING THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS THEN ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. FURTHER TO THE SE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-28N BETWEEN 57W-68W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN