000
AXNT20 KNHC 242359
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       

NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
S OF 21N W OF 92W UNTIL 25/0000 UTC. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST 
NHC/TAFB HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN 
COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W TO 4N30W TO 2N45W TO THE COAST OF 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 35W-46W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                            

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO W CUBA TO JUST N OF COZUMEL MEXICO NEAR 
21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT OVER THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE LIGHTING DETECTION SYSTEM ALSO SHOWS A 
SMALL AREA OF LIGHTNING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IN THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE NEAR 19.5N92W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF. 
SEE ABOVE. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW GULF. FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE NE GULF. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 
50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...AND IN THE 70'S OVER SOUTH 
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING 
SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF S OF 28N. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER 
THE SW GULF AND CONTINUED FAIE WEATHER OVER THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N66W TO 11N68W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER BELIZE... 
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N68W ENHANCING 
THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 3N. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT THE 
SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW TO MOVE BACK TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH CONTINUED 
CONVECTION.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                               

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH 
THE TRADEWINDS. EXPECT A FEW MORE SHOWERS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N76W TO FREEPORT 
BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. 20-25 NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N45W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. OF 
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SW OF 
PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 58W-70W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 
THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N62W TO 
CENTRAL CUBA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA