000 AXNT20 KNHC 241800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE-FORCE WIND SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 27N82W 23N87W 18N92W. GALE- FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 17 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 30N89W TO 22N98W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN LIBERIA...AND IT STOPS THERE. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W TO 4N27W TO 2N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 28W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W... TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 23N TO 28N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH TEXAS TO 20N97W IN COASTAL MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... THE TAMPA FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PUNTA GORDA AND THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN CLEARING IN NAPLES FLORIDA FOR THE LAST OBSERVATION. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N69W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 6N IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TO 28N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 10N TO 20N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 53W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 71W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS IN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THEN IT MOVES TO 20N60W BY 48 HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS BASED ON THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT WITH TIME IN A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH STARTS ALONG THE LINE FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE. THE INVERTED TROUGH ENDS UP ALONG THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT THE END OF 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA STARTS AS NORTHEASTERLY...IT BECOMES PURELY CYCLONIC FOR MOST OF THE TIME...AND THEN IT ENDS AS SOUTHEASTERLY. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 70W... IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.99 IN GUADELOUPE...0.41 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.04 IN ST. THOMAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT....WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N69W 15N74W. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOROCCO TO 21N25W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS...THROUGH 29N24W...TO A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N44W...TO 33N58W...TO 31N66W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N78W 28N81W. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 52W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 65W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE 27N35W 29N50W 29N65W 25N76W... AND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT