000 AXNT20 KNHC 232341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AT 30N83W TO 25N86W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 18N93W. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED S OF 22N W OF 94W WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY S OF 21N W OF 92W. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC/TAFB HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W TO 5N30W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 21W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AT 30N83W TO 25N86W TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 18N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF W OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF W OF FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF... SOUTH FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...AND IN THE 70'S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE GULF AND ENTER THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALL MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W MOVING W AND PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 3N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO ADVECT SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENTLY SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT WITHIN 24 HOURS FOR THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REACH HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N52W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 20N55W TO 11N56W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N- 23N BETWEEN 53W-65W. ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ARE ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA