000 AXNT20 KNHC 221723 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-78W. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE WINDS ARE DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N51W AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE LOUISIANA COAST TO 25N93.5W TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 23N WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE AND BE REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR. THIS SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 95W. FOR BOTH GALE AREAS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC/TAFB HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 05N20W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS INDICATED S OF THE AXIS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 05N25W TO 02.5N40.5W LINE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO WITH THE AXIS ALONG 104W. STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE SPEEDS IN THE 80 TO 100 KNOT RANGE OVER THIS AREA. THE SW WINDS BECOME MODERATE OVER THE SE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SE LOUISIANA COAST TO 25N93.5W TO THE MEXICAN COAST AT 23N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND W OF THE FRONT TO THE TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTLINES. THIS AREA IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR E OF THE FRONT UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. A WEAKENING 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 21N96.5W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO 18N94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE SUBSIDENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED S OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS ALOFT ARE SE AND GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND EXCEPT FOR BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ABOVE MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION COVERS ALL OF HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N72W WITH RIDGE AXES EXTENDING NE THROUGH BERMUDA AND SW ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED NE TO SW FROM 32N35W TO 24N50W AND INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED N OF ABOUT 10N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS INTO AFRICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF ABOUT 50W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 54W/55W FROM 12N TO 17N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 40W FROM 26N TO 30N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CAB