000 AXNT20 KNHC 200604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N10W AT THE COAST OF LIBERIA...TO 4N18W 6N26W 5N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W AT THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS 35W/37W FROM 8N TO 19N. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N38W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE SAME AREA OF OVERALL CLOUDINESS FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ITCZ...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 12W AND 17W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 86W/87W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA...TO COASTAL ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...TO 28N93W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE NOW LESS THAN GALE-FORCE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG... KBQX...KGVX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KVBS...KATP HAS REPORTED LOW CLOUD CEILINGS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS... KIPN...AND KMDJ. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT KEIR...KSPR...AND KDLP. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS ALICE TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS FROM VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/PALACIOS TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER CITIES...TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL LOUISIANA...WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE PENSACOLA AREA/THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NAPLES AREA IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 6000 FEET. THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA HAS BEEN REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 93W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WITH A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY...AND GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE RIDGE BEGINS THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD SPANNING THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY BUILDS WITH TIME AND IT COVERS THE AREAS FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...RELATED TO A CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WITH A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 75W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY... TO THE EAST OF 75W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 68W/69W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 73W...IN AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT IS MOVING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.13 IN CURACAO...AND 0.05 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC WERE...0.34 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO... 0.12 IN CURACAO...0.11 IN TRINIDAD...0.09 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.07 IN ST. THOMAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...10N84W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 29N60W 27N70W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 27N70W TO 27N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BETWEEN 53W AND 72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N53W TO 24N73W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N20W TO 32N38W AND 29N49W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 12 FEET FROM 14N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 38W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 31N42W 26N54W 24N65W 20N70W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 31N54W 25N70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT