000 AXNT20 KNHC 191152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU DEC 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ IS ALONG 3N6W 4N14W 4N20W 6N30W...4N34W 3N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 4N TO 14N. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N34W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE SAME AREA OF OVERALL CLOUDINESS FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ITCZ... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 27W AND 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 26N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 95W/96W FROM MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 23N60W 20N70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 27N66W 23N78W 25N87W 30N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT IS THE REMNANT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 26N67W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N70W AND 26N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W 30N58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N58W 26N66W 23N78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.20 IN BERMUDA...AND THE 24-HOUR TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC WAS...0.31 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 26N93W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG... KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KEHC...KGBK...KATP...KEIR...KSPR... KMDJ...AND KDLP. ICAO STATION KMYT HAS SHOWN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AFTER OBSERVING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. EDINBURG WAS REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. LOW CLOUD CEILING COVER THE REST OF COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS...INCLUDING IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MOST AREAS OF SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. THE SKIES ARE ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES WITH FOG ARE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY...AND GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INVERTED TROUGH WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE AND CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 73W...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 73W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY... TO THE EAST OF 73W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 85W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND SOME REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT OF 24 HOURS AGO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.20 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.18 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC WERE...0.31 IN BERMUDA...0.15 IN GUADELOUPE...0.18 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.09 IN ST. THOMAS AND TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 10N85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 20N34W ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... AND MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 23N60W 20N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 33N13W TO 32N28W 31N43W 30N52W... AND 26N61W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET FROM 18N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 43W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 30N35W 25N55W 22N65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT