000 AXNT20 KNHC 181159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 4N8W TO 6N15W 3N30W AND 1N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG IN CLUSTERS BETWEEN 7W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 35W AND THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N70W TO 23N80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N70W...ACROSS CAT ISLAND AND THE EXUMA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W...CURVING TO 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COASTAL HONDURAS ALONG 86W/87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N70W BEYOND 32N63W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 26N70W...AND FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC WAS...1.19 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO 26N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBQX... KVAF...AND KDLP. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... THE VISIBILITIES ARE 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN TEXAS AT... WESLACO AND MCALLEN IN THE DEEP SOUTH...AT THE KINGSVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI...FROM PORT LAVACA TO THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT AND EVERYWHERE IN BETWEEN THERE...TO SUGARLAND...TOMBALL...AND CONROE...AND IN THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA. THE VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG CONTINUE INTO COASTAL LOUISIANA...THE VISIBILITY IS 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE COASTAL PLAINS STATIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO. SIMILAR CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST... ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY... WESTERLY...AND GRADUALLY NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE WIND FLOW WILL VARY FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY...EVEN TO NORTH- EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 30 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA INVERTED TROUGH. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA TOWARD JAMAICA...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AFTER REACHING JAMAICA. THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.39 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.06 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC WERE...1.19 IN BERMUDA...0.17 IN GUADELOUPE...0.11 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W 7N79W BEYOND 8N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 87W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. TO THE EAST OF 82W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N70W TO 23N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N12W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N30W...TO 30N40W 28N53W..AND 26N65W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N19W TO A 17N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N35W AND 12N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE LINE 10N60W 10N50W 12N40W 15N30W 16N25W TO 27N/28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 73W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W 27N72W 22N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N27W TO 32N37W 30N48W 28N59W AND 25N64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MOROCCO 33N4W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 20N26W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...TO 16N30W 13N35W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 13N35W TO 14N46W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 14N TO 22N. A SURGE IN THE WIND FIELD/AN AIRMASS CHANGE IS NOTED ALONG 20N22W 15N25W 13N39W 22N49W...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 60W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 29N35W 25N55W 22N68W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT