000 AXNT20 KNHC 171157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 7N14W...4N20W 2N30W 1N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE WEST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... IT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W 27N72W 22N78W...AND IT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W 28N75W 24N84W 19N95W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 31N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N65W...ACROSS ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N82W...CURVING TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W 28N71W 25N76W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF 84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.91 IN BERMUDA...AND FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC...0.84 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBQX... KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...AND KATP. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... THE VISIBILITIES IN EDINBURG...MCALLEN...AND HARLINGEN IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS ARE 2 TO 3 MILES. THE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IN...THE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS METROPOLITAN AREA...IN PORT LAVACA AND IN BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR...3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA...1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG AT THE NEW ORLEANS NAVAL AIR STATION FOR A FEW RECENT OBSERVATIONS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO KEY WEST. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES WESTERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART. FEW TO SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA TOWARD JAMAICA...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AFTER REACHING JAMAICA. THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N82W...CURVING TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF 84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.91 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC WERE...0.84 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS... 0.26 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE AND IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 85W AT THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND 78W IN PANAMA...IN THE GULF OF URABA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 73W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W 27N72W 22N78W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N27W TO 32N37W 30N48W 28N59W AND 25N64W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MOROCCO 33N4W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 20N26W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...TO 16N30W 13N35W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 13N35W TO 14N46W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 14N TO 22N. A SURGE IN THE WIND FIELD/AN AIRMASS CHANGE IS NOTED ALONG 20N22W 15N25W 13N39W 22N49W...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 61W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 27N45W 25N60W 23N70W. THE 36-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT 31N70W 28N80W. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT