000 AXNT20 KNHC 170603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM SENEGAL TO GUINEA-BISSAU...THROUGH GUINEA...TO 10N15W...CURVING TO 5N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N21W TO 4N32W 4N38W...AND TO 2N50W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 41W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 10W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE WEST OF 24W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W TO 23N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N59W 27N70W 21N76W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE 32N71W 26N80W 22N90W 21N97W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...ACROSS ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 27N72W...22N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 16N86W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.91 IN BERMUDA...AND FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC...0.84 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...TO 25N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SECONDARY RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BELIZE TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGBK... KATP...AND KMYT. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... THE VISIBILITIES IN LOUISIANA BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND PATTERSON HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 MILES OR LESS DURING THE LAST THREE TO FOUR HOURS. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING IN THE KEY WEST FLORIDA AREA...AFTER MANY HOURS OF REPORTS OF MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 24N84W 21N95W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES WESTERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN PART. FEW TO SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA TOWARD JAMAICA...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AFTER REACHING JAMAICA. THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW BECOMES CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 16N86W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.91 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE. TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC WERE...0.84 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS... 0.26 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE AND IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N84W ALONG THE COSTA RICA PACIFIC OCEAN COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 82W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 11N. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 73W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N59W 27N70W 21N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N29W TO 32N37W 30N48W 28N60W AND 23N70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MOROCCO 33N7W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 21N26W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...TO 18N25W 14N29W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 14N29W TO 15N35W AND AND 15N46W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 14N TO 22N. A SURGE IN THE WIND FIELD/AN AIRMASS CHANGE IS NOTED ALONG 20N24W 16N30W 17N38W 20N44W 23N46W...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N66W 23N81W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 60W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 61W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 28N45W 25N60W 23N71W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT