000 AXNT20 KNHC 162352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 09N15W. THE AXIS RESUMES WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 07N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N27W TO 02N40W TO 0S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-06N E OF 30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THE STABILITY ALOFT ANCHORED BY A TRIO OF HIGHS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS TO A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THURSDAY E-SE FLOW WILL RE- ESTABLISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH ALONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 17N W OF 80W. IN THE SW BASIN S OF 11N...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 09N77W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE. HISPANIOLA... PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...A MOSTLY NORMAL PATTERN OF WINTER TIME TRADES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N67W EXTENDING SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO NW CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BECOMING MOSTLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AREAL SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR