000 AXNT20 KNHC 161751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N10W TO 07N15W TO 03N30W TO 03N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 13W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR 33N84W TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT TO MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE EXISTENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W SW TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THE STABILITY ALOFT ANCHORED BY A TRIO OF HIGHS ANALYZED FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO A STRONG 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THURSDAY E-SE FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS AS AN AREA LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 71W BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-76W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W SW TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...IN TANDEM WITH THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 80W-89W...WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW E OF 71W REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS NOTED FOR HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THESE SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT PREVAIL WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL STABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE. LOOKING AHEAD...A MOSTLY NORMAL PATTERN OF WINTER TIME TRADES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W EXTENDING SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BECOMING MOSTLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AREAL SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N42W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 32N26W TO 28N34W BUT CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN