000 AXNT20 KNHC 160604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 9N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N15W TO 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W...TO 4N51W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE BORDER WITH FRENCH GUIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 13W AND 23W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 27W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 24N98W BEYOND 32N81W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES AN EASTERN U.S.A.-TO-SOUTHERN LOUISIANA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 24N98W 32N81W LINE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W...THROUGH GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF FLORIDA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... TO 18N91W IN MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF THE BORDER OF MEXICO WITH GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N79W 30N72W BEYOND 32N68W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 32N73W-TO-18N91W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-YUCATAN PENINSULA COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N97W...TO 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NORTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE WITH FOG. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST PLAINS FROM BROOKSVILLE SOUTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT 25N80W TO 19N91W. S OF 21N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W NW TO N WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 24N BETWEEN 87W AND 97W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT W OF 89W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. CROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 30 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS... BUT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA TOWARD JAMAICA...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AFTER REACHING JAMAICA. THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA... ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BECOMING CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM 10N79W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA TO 16N ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.83 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES FROM 8N76W IN COLOMBIA TO 10N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM 10N79W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA TO 16N ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT....FROM 11N TO 18N E OF 82W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN E SWELL. S OF 11N WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 76W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 23N80W BEYOND 32N60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 30N34W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 30N34W TO 29N40W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW NEAR THE FRONT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W 29N30W 28N40W 28N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N43W TO 29N55W 27N62W 25N69W...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A NORTHERN MAURITANIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH WESTERN MAURITANIA...TO 9N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN MAURITANIA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA BEYOND NORTHERN MOROCCO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N74W 25N80W. N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 65W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT... HIGHEST NEAR FRONT. N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 76W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF...S OF 24N E OF 60W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. N OF 24N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW SWELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT