000 AXNT20 KNHC 151205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N86W 25N90W 19N95W. GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF 93W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... GALE-FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 67W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N11W TO 4N14W AND 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N20W TO 6N23W 4N40W AND 2N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 6W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 30N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W...TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC... CURVING TO 21N100W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 25N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N89W JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 24N86W...TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... CLEARING SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER ALL THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING...THAT ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MOSTLY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN BROOKSVILLE AND ACROSS THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. IT HAS BEEN RAINING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TAMPA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CONTINUE FROM SARASOTA TO PUNTA GORDA. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...REACHING CUBA...FROM CENTRAL AMERICA EASTWARD...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...ACROSS 70W AND TOWARD HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...TO 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.70 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.88 IN TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 10N84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND 9N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W INCLUDING ALONG THE COASTS OF THE NEARBY CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 80W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OF LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING TO THE NORTH OF 27N MOSTLY...AND REACHING 60W. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT STARTS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N54W...TO 27N63W 25N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO 21N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 31N41W. A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N29W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN AFRICA FROM MOROCCO TO THE WESTERN SAHARA...INTO MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL...TO 8N16W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 60W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 27N35W 22N65W. 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