000 AXNT20 KNHC 150605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 06-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT 30N84W 25N90W 19N95W. GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 26 TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE 06-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 67W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 6N23W 4N40W AND 2N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 8W AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH COASTAL ALABAMA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 26N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE AT ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER ALL THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING...THAT ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W. ICAO STATION KMYT IS REPORTING SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AREA TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO GALVESTON AND TO BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR IN THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA... WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST PART OF THE STATE. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN COASTAL SECTIONS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN BROOKSVILLE AND IN SARASOTA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 30N88W 25N94W 21N97W. NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. . THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. EASTERLY-TO- SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...THAT IS RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...DUE TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO- WEST RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...REACHING 20N...FROM CENTRAL AMERICA EASTWARD...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...ACROSS 70W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...TO 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.70 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.88 IN TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND THE EASTERN COAST OF COSTA RICA..CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 9N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 85W OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 80W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH OF 20N. THIS WESTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO 60W. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT STARTS NEAR 20N70W AND CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N30W TO 31N49W...TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N57W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 33N70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN AFRICA FROM MOROCCO TO THE WESTERN SAHARA...INTO MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL...TO 8N20W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 74W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 60W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 27N35W 23N50W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 45W. 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