000 AXNT20 KNHC 141754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING 15/0600 UTC FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS. THE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE REMAINING IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT BEFORE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 09W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF WITH MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF 25N. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH- CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W SW TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE AND INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 84W-90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT N OF 26N W OF 91W. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 28 HOURS THE STRONG WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INITIALLY WITH THE AREA MIGRATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE EXISTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF PLAINS WITH NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PROVIDING OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 12N. OTHERWISE...PASSING LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BASIN-WIDE WITHIN STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER HISPANIOLA PROVIDING FOR OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...PASSING LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 65W AND A BASE NEAR 22N. THIS TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W THAT MEANDERS SW TO 27N56W AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES TO 24N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING N OF 27N W OF 66W...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N69W. FINALLY...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDES INFLUENCE FOR THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N26W. EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT...WITH THE STRONG WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N24W TO 12N55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN