000 AXNT20 KNHC 141150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N84W TO 19N95W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W CURVING TO 6N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N18W TO 4N20W 2N30W AND 1N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 3W AND 6W... AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. THE PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 88W IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT CUTS THROUGH LOUISIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N96W... INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF IT HAS BEEN THINNING OUT WITH TIME. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT ICAO STATIONS KBBF AND KBQX ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE OTHER TEXAS COASTAL ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING CLEARING SKIES. ICAO STATIONS KEMK...KGBK...KVBS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. CLEARING SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE OTHER ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W. ICAO STATION KATP IS REPORTING SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AND A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT KMYT...KIPN...AND KMDJ. CLEARING SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST NORTHWARD. VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER TEXAS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF PERRY. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. CLEAR SKIES/ FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN PARTS OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... ALONG 21N71W 19N72W 15N74W. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. EASTERLY-TO- SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...THAT IS RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...DUE TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO- WEST RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM EAST TO WEST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND BEYOND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. IT REACHES 80W AND CURVES TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.69 IN ST. THOMAS...0.42 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.20 IN MERIDA IN MEXICO...0.17 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.12 IN TRINIDAD AND 0.12 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.10 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W COSTA RICA...AND THEN BEYOND 9N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 28N55W AND 27N60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 64W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 64W...MERGING WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALONG 64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W 25N53W 20N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N62W 20N63W. THIS TROUGH SHOWED UP IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N37W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N24W...TO 28N38W AND 25N52W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 16N18W TO 5N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 23N35W 21N50W 18N61W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 26N35W 22N50W 20N60W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF THE 24-HOUR FORECAST OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT