000 AXNT20 KNHC 140603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 30-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N84W TO 20N97W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 21N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W CURVING TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO 3N30W 3N40W...AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 4N TO THE EAST OF 5W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS AND WEST TEXAS. THE PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 90W IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT COVERS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 90W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REST OF THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE AREA THAT COVERS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W/88W AND 92W. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS EDINBURG IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES WITH FOG AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER CITIES...SUCH AS CONROE AND SUGARLAND. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN PARTS OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...ALONG 21N72W 18N72W 15N73W. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. EASTERLY-TO- SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...THAT IS RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...DUE TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO- WEST RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND BEYOND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. IT REACHES 80W AND CURVES TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.69 IN ST. THOMAS...0.42 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.20 IN MERIDA IN MEXICO...0.17 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.12 IN TRINIDAD AND 0.12 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.10 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N76W IN COLOMBIA TO 6N79W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BEYOND 7N86W AND CONTINUING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W FROM COLOMBIA INTO ITS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALSO IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 80W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W... INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N55W AND 25N67W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N67W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 22N87W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT GENERALLY IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 64W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 64W...MERGING WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALONG 64W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W 26N50W 20N64W 20N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W...TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N32W...CONTINUING TO 28N39W... 26N51W...AND 24N60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 16N20W TO 8N22W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 24N35W 21N50W 18N61W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 31N35W 22N50W 21N57W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 54W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT