000 AXNT20 KNHC 132335 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING 15/0600 UTC FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 30 KT BEFORE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 6N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 6N19W TO 3N30W TO 2N47W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 22W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N76W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 22N87W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 25N. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA... HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. FURTHER S... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 9N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA ...AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 70W-79W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA... AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE ISLAND MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N56W TO 27N64W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N32W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA