000 AXNT20 KNHC 131740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 03N30W TO 02N47W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 22W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF WITH MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF 25N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND MOST OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N79W. MOSTLY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT AND THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OUT INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS EARLY SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W WHICH IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N77W TO 17N80W. MOST OF THIS FLOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY FEATURES OF NOTE ARE A GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W TO 14N69W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. FINALLY...TRADE WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL...STRONGEST S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-80W...WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 20N W OF 80W...ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY INLAND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER HISPANIOLA PROVIDING FOR OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W TO 14N69W CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT SOUTH OF THE ISLAND...BUT WILL HOWEVER INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT DIPS A BASE SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 23N75W. WHILE THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARE WELL NORTH OF 35N...THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N55W SW TO 27N65W TO 25N74W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 29N58W TO 21N66W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 56W-64W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N79W. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N31W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN