000 AXNT20 KNHC 111757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 9N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N33W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N- 10N BETWEEN 30W-46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 27W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AT 11/1500 UTC NEAR THE N SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES INTO THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 25N89W 22N94W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE FRONT FROM 83W-90W AND W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM W CUBA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS BETWEEN 80W-84W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE/ KENTUCKY BORDER. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO NW GULF SAT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO SUN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG MEXICAN COAST BEHIND FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM PANAMA ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN FROM 21N86W 18N87W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-22N W OF 78W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 17N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 15N E OF 68W TO INLAND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 79W. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF E COAST BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT E THROUGH WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N W OF 40W ANCHORED NEAR 26N58W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 11/1500 UTC NEAR 32N63W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N75W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR THE N SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THEN CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS IS BUILDING E INTO THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 30W TO THE W ATLC FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N43W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N21W ALONG 23N29W TO 15N45W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N16W AND EXTENDS TO 24N25W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 19N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W TO 18N25W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 24N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. W ATLC WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL TODAY BEFORE MOVING SE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO EXTREME S FLORIDA THU THEN TO FLORIDA KEYS FRI NIGHT WHERE IT STALL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SAT. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA AND INTO NW WATERS SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW