000 AXNT20 KNHC 110005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT 30N84W TO 23N94W TO 19N95W. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET FROM THE FRONT TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 95W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 91W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 91W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W AND 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 6N26W 5N40W...TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. THE SOUTHERN PART OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 7N36W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N94W... TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...CURVING TO 20N97W IN MEXICO...23N101W AND 26N100W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 30N81W 26N90W 20N96W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE CLOUDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT 30N90W 24N98W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS MOVING AROUND THE EDGE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N66W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE EASTERN END OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FIRST FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEN WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...BECAUSE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 20N84W 17N83W 14N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF 16N48W 15N60W 17N65W 18N72W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.73 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...0.26 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.21 IN ST. THOMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA...7N80W...BEYOND 8N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE IN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 74W AND 85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT... EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 79W...INCLUDING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSAGES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 46W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 24N66W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS AN EASTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH AND AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT...THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH C PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 11 TO 17 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 52W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 09N AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 31N49W 22N72W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT