000 AXNT20 KNHC 101748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE NW OF FRONT S OF 26N W OF 95W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 11/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N18W TO 6N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 30W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N85W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 23N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N96W. A GALE IS NW OF FRONT S OF 26N W OF 95W. 20- 30 KT WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT. OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 40'S ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND IN THE 80'S OVER S FLORIDA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N82W TO 14N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 79W- 85W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 5N75W TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 9N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA... PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA...S OF 10N. ELSEWHERE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N80W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OPEN TO A TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N53W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N27W TO 25N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E... A 1001 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N22W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO 18N29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 18W-23W. IN THE TROPICS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 52W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N BETWEEN 50W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 50W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA