000 AXNT20 KNHC 101140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FROM 10/1800 UTC TO 11/0000 UTC ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT AT 10/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N87W TO 27N93W TO 24N97W. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 09N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N16W TO 05N24W TO 05N38W TO 05N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 23W-29W AND FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 32W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDES S-SE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WHICH ADVECTS DRY AIR FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. FARTHER WEST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N88W TO 18N90W WITH NO CONVECTION. IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LOUISIANA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W TO 27N93W TO 24N97W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NW GULF AND SUPPLIES NORTHERLY WIND FROM 25-30 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALOFT...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR NW BASIN WHERE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM WESTERN JAMAICA NEAR 19N78W TO 14N80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 76W-82W...INCLUDING JAMAICA. A COL OR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS SOUTH OF 14N E OF 70W. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN BASIN SUPPORTS 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THU MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THU MORNING AS MULTI-LAYERED DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N51W BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N32W TO 25N44W TO 28N58W. FARTHER EAST...THE SAME TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 31N25W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 26N24W TO 19N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 18W-25W AND FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 24W-28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR