000 AXNT20 KNHC 100003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON DEC 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 24 HOURS...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 30N83W TO 23N95W TO 20N97W. GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 22N TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF 90W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 6N31W 5N37W 5N51W...ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FRENCH GUIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN SURINAME NEAR 3N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W...AND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 33W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO 28N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 28N90W TO 27N94W AND 23N96W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS MIXED WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KHQI...KEHC...KVBS... KMDJ...KSPR...KDLP...AND K9F2. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ALSO ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KMZG... KBBF...KEHC...KEIR...KSPR...AND KDLP. THE ICAO STATIONS KEMK AND KGBK HAVE REPORTED LOW CLOUD CEILINGS DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE... AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR MORE TODAY FROM THE AREA OF VICTORIA-PORT LAVACA-PALACIOS TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER CITIES SUCH AS SUGARLAND...AND TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES COVER SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN COASTAL ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS REMAIN FROM FORT MYERS TO PUNTA GORDA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT 30N90W 24N98W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N78W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N74W...FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...TO 16N76W AND 14N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS MOVING AROUND THE EDGE OF OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 13N78W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED MOSTLY IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.44 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 23N TO 27N. TWO INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 26N/27N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N78W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N74W...FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...TO 16N76W AND 14N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N TO 10N TO THE WEST OF 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSAGES. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 74W AND 82W AND TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N27W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 29N27W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 22N31W 17N33W 13N41W 16N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG FROM 19N TO 31N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N43W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF 32N30W 20N30W 15N40W 16N60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 31N38W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N38W TO 28N50W TO 31N60W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 31N59W BEYOND 32N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N63W TO 30N75W TO 28N84W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N29W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 16N35W TO 14N40W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 52W. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 12 FEET FROM 22N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 38W. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 78W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 17N35W TO 10N50W TO 10N62W...EXCEPT TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 55W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 76W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT