000
AXNT20 KNHC 091740
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST MON DEC 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 5N9W TO 4N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 5N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. AREA IS VOID OF ANY 
DEEP CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW 
ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH A COLD FRONT AT 9/1500 UTC ENTERS THE 
GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER AND CONTINUING ALONG 29N89W 
TO 28N92W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ALONG 27N94W TO 
24N96W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE PLAIN STATES WHICH 
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY TO PUSH THE FRONT SE AGAIN 
ON TUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA W OF THE FRONT CONTINUING TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO 
REMAINS UNDER DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS TO OVER THE SE CONUS AND NE MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. 
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS NW PORTIONS THROUGH 
TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SE TUE AND REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY 
TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY STALL. 
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE AGAIN SE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING AS 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SE CONUS WITH FRONT TO 
BECOMING STATIONARY LATE FRI FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE W 
BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 81W AND EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS W CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC. A CUT OFF UPPER 
LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED S OF 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 14N72W. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS ROUGHLY 
EXTENDS FROM 18N71W TO 14N72W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N68W 
17N71W TO 15N77W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF OF THE S COAST OF 
HISPANIOLA. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENHANCED BY THE 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING STRONG 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
E OF 82W THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN WED THROUGH EARLY FRI AS RIDGE 
SHIFTS NE. A SECOND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E OFF E 
COAST OF U.S. BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE FRI.

HISPANIOLA...                                                   
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ENTIRE 
ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/BROAD SURFACE TROUGH 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW S OF HISPANIOLA WILL RETREAT E BY 
TUE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC STRENGTHENS. 
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUE 
NIGHT THROUGH FRI. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W 
CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH S 
OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N64W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC 
NEAR 32N32W TO 18N43W SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 26N33W. A 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N26W AND EXTENDS ALONG 
26N27W TO 14N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 
NM OF LINE FROM 19N31W TO 22N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N32W TO 26N26W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 17N E OF THE FRONT...WITHIN 250 NM E 
OF THE FRONT S OF 17N...AND N OF 26N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 30W. 
THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUE 
SUPPORTING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN 
WED THROUGH EARLY FRI AS HIGH SHIFTS NE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL SHIFT E OFF E COAST OF U.S. BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE FRI.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW