000 AXNT20 KNHC 091028 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N11W TO 06N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N18W AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W TO 04N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N- 07N BETWEEN 18W-25W AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 37W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE SW N ATLC DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AND PROVIDES S-SE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N88W SW TO 26N92W TO 24N94W. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N93W TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W...HOWEVER THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE SW N ATLC NEAR 26N67W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. WITHIN 48 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGHOUT WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 10N. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W SW TO NE COLOMBIA NEAR 11N71W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL TROUGH AXIS ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 14N- 18N BETWEEN 66W-74W. IN THE MIDDLE-LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. FARTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PROVIDES DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE SOME OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W SW TO NE COLOMBIA NEAR 11N71W WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA E OF 69W...SOUTHERN ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS TO 14N. RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ISLAND AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 26N68W. VERY DRY AIR IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION IN SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER W OF 45W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A 1003 MB LOW IS NEAR 29N32W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 30N26W SW TO 19N32W TO 13N40W WHERE A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO 12N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS N OF 13N EAST OF 27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 19N BETWEEN 27W-33W. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-NE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SW NORTH ATLC BY TUE AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR