000 AXNT20 KNHC 090601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 05N13W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N13W AND CONTINUES TO 04N26W TO 03N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 27W-36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 03N- 08N BETWEEN 20W-25W AND FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 36W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE SW N ATLC DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AND PROVIDES S-SE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W SW TO 23N94W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE SW N ATLC NEAR 26N67W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGHOUT WED AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO NW VENEZUELA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL TROUGH AXIS ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 64W-72W AS WELL AS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE MIDDLE- LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. FARTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PROVIDES DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW VENEZUELA WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE PASSAGE AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ISLAND AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N67W BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 26N66W. VERY DRY AIR IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION IN SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER W OF 44W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A 1002 MB LOW IS NEAR 26N37W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 30N27W SW TO 18N36W TO 13N50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 17W-29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 23N BETWEEN 28W-34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 21W-43W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR