000 AXNT20 KNHC 081750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN DEC 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLANTIC BASIN...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 40W-47W UNTIL 09/0600 UTC. THESE NW TO N WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1002 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 29N41W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N11W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N21W 7N32W TO E OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 8N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 43W FROM 6N-2N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 33W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA AND THE FAR N ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE NW ATLC AND ENTERS THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT AT 08/1500 UTC ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 29N87W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT ALONG 27N94W TO 24N95W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AGAIN TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 91W-95W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND FAR E TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT IS UNDER DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OVER THE SE CONUS AND NE MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW AND STALL OVER THE NW GULF EARLY MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON MON ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF THIS WARM FRONT. THE MERGED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE THEN STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED AND THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S ACROSS THE GULF N OF THE FRONT ON THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS W CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 15N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 19N54W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO TO 14N66W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 60W-70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 62W-80W. THESE SAME TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 82W THROUGH THU AND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE UPPER LOW S OF PUERTO RICO WILL SHIFT W BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND S HAITI TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 22N81W THEN OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST S OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N66W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W ALONG 25N40W TO 20N56W SUPPORTING GALE CENTER DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE AND AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 24N40W TO BEYOND 32N33W. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N28W AND EXTENDS TO 23N34W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 16N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 18N37W TO TO 23N28W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 25W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER PORTUGAL. THE W ATLC SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT E ON TUE NIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR W ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT E REACHING FROM 32N76W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA ON WED NIGHT AND ACCELERATE REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON THU NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW