000 AXNT20 KNHC 080605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF MEXICO...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 08/0600 UTC S OF 22N W OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N84W TO 23N94W TO 18N94W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC BASIN...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 08/0600 UTC FOR THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N35W TO 21N40W TO 18N50W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N09W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N26W TO 07N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N- 11N BETWEEN 27W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N85W SW TO 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 88W-92W AS WELL AS S OF 20N E OF 93W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC BY EASTERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...THERE IS A GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH N-NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE COURSE OF 48 HOURS...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL DRIFT NW WHILE IT WEAKENS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE DURING THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE BASIN W OF 72W WHERE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OBSERVED ON SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONVERGE ALONG THE COASTLINES OF BELIZE...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE COASTS. S OF 10N ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO A 1005 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 15N E OF 67W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ISLANDS FROM 16N61W TO 15N63W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W TO BEYOND PUERTO RICO. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC. FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING AS A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. VERY DRY AIR IS ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N W OF 46W. OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN ATLC...A 1002 MB LOW IS NEAR 32N39W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 30N30W SW TO 22N36W TO 19N45W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE ALONG 17N53W TO 15N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 40W-54W...N OF 22N BETWEEN 23W-33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 34W-44W. THERE IS A GALE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR