000 AXNT20 KNHC 072349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT DEC 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF MEXICO...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 08/0600 UTC ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N-26N W OF 95W WITH NW TO N WINDS 30-35 KT. SEAS ARE 8-10 FT. THESE GALE WINDS ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC BASIN...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 08/0600 UTC FOR THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-50W WITH NW TO N WINDS 30-35 KT. SEAS ARE 15-18 FT IN N SWELL. THESE GALE WINDS ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N13W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 7N30W TO 7N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 23W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W TO THE W GULF AT 24N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N93W. OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA N OF 30N BETWEEN 83W-85W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FROM 22N-26N W OF 95W. 15-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK N TOWARDS THE NW GULF WITH SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA ...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N76W TO BEYOND W COSTA RICA AT 9N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N E OF 65W DUE TO A SHEAR LINE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W TO BEYOND PUERTO RICO. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE EAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N63W. A 1000 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N33W TO 24N36W TO 21N45W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 18N60W. SCATTERED MODERATER CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 28W- 33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATALNTIC NEAR 33N39W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 50W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA