000 AXNT20 KNHC 071751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT DEC 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N-24N W OF 96W UNTIL 07/1800 UTC. THESE N WINDS ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC BASIN...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 40W-50W UNTIL 07/1800 UTC. THESE NW TO N WINDS ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N11W TO 7N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N29W 4N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 37W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER W CUBA DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE THEN ALONG 27N89W 22N94W AND S INTO MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE GULF W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE SE CONUS AND NE MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE S PORTION OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 24N91W TO MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA DE LA MACHONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING THEN MOVE NW ON SUN REACHING THE FAR NW GULF WATERS EARLY MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON MON ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE THEN STALL FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED INTO THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED OVER W CUBA NEAR GUINES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 18N61W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO SE PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N E OF 66W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 81W-85W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT E BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND USHERED IN BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OR TOMORROW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT W BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MON AND TUE BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ISLAND BY WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER W CUBA NEAR GUINES EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N68W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST SE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W ALONG 26N50W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N33W AND EXTENDS TO 21N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 19N52W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 18N61W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO SE PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 48W-56W AND FROM 16- 20N BETWEEN 56W-63W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 33W WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 25N27W. A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED ALONG 42W FROM 10N-14N AND 52W FROM 10N-14N. THESE FEATURES ARE BECOMING ILL- DEFINED. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT AND STALL FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW