000 AXNT20 KNHC 061204 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI DEC 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING EXISTS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W TO 24N47W THEN WEAKENING FRONT TO 20N65W. N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 52W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT IN MERGING NW AND NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NW OF FRONT TO 65W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. S OF 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. N OF 26N WITHIN 150 NM E OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA E OF FRONT AND N OF LINE FROM 24N47W TO 12N40W TO 10N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. CURRENT CONDITIONS...PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N43W TO 24N50W THEN WEAKENING FRONT TO 20N65W. N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. W OF FRONT TO 60W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MERGING NW AND NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NW OF FRONT BETWEEN 60W AND 65W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. S OF 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA E OF FRONT AND N OF LINE FROM 24N50W TO 17N40W TO 15N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W TO 5N25W 5N34W AND 5N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 7N TO 13N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. IT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...AND IT REACHES NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N62W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1027 MB HIGH CENTER...ACROSS BERMUDA...THROUGH 29N74W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N92W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 30N92W TO 26N97W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N47W...TO A 20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N65W...BEYOND 10N68W AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 28N46W 23N50W AND 21N55W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N55W TO 19N65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.85 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH WILL COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HISPANIOLA EASTWARD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL COVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-FLORIDA RIDGE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HISPANIOLA EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HISPANIOLA WESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...7N80W AND 7N83W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT....NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N47W...TO A 20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N65W...BEYOND 10N68W AT THE VENEZUELA COAST. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 28N46W 23N50W AND 21N55W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N55W TO 19N65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 28N40W 21N56W. A NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N27W. SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 35W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LIMIT SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N26W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 30N18W 24N18W 18N20W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 33N TO 36WN BETWEEN 24W AND 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N62W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1027 MB HIGH CENTER...ACROSS BERMUDA...THROUGH 29N74W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N92W. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT