000 AXNT20 KNHC 031744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE DEC 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 08N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N17W TO 06N24W TO 06N30W TO 04N36W TO 04N40W TO 02N43W. SCATTERER MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 17W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 23W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 17N101W. GIVEN THE STABLE FLOW ALOFT...CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AS WELL UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 10- 15 KT TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHWESTERLY DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR W OF 80W ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS FAIR THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CONVECTION NOTED IS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N AND ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 07N77W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT ALSO REMAINS DRY AND STABLE ALOFT. A FEW SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 15N W OF 72W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N67W SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 18N74W. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE SE OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT TRADE WIND SURFACE WINDS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N67W SW TO 18N74W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W ON THE BACK SIDE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 38N68W TO 30N62W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N65W TO 26N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 26N65W SW TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 55W-63W IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 62W-66W EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N77W TO A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ARE FORECAST TO MERGE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF 24N72W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROVIDES INFLUENCE N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-55W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 40N40W SOUTHWARD TO 32N43W TO 15N48W. FINALLY...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N29W THAT SUPPORTS A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N25W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 27N14W. MOST LOWER TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 210 NM NE OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN