000
AXNT20 KNHC 030537
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST TUE DEC 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
9N12W TO 7N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 7N16W TO 4N24W TO 4N33W TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 12W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 23W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                

AS OF 0300 UTC... A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N89W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED 
AROUND THE HIGH ...WHILE 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE 
FAR W GULF W OF 95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS VOID OF ANY 
PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NW 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF. A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
N GULF N OF 26N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE GULF. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE TO THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W. 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN 
DOMINATE THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                       

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 17N88W TO 16N82W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 84W-88W. A MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N73W TO BEYOND W COSTA RICA 
AT 9N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
TROUGH. FURTHER E... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 66W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A GOOD AMOUNT OF 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 66W.  
EXPECT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IN 
24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE SHOWERS TO MOVE W TO 72W IN 24 
HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

AS OF 0300 UTC... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
NEAR 28N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE TROUGH TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A 1004 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N25W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTEND SE FROM THE LOW TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N16W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATALNTIC SUPPORTING 
THE SURFACE LOW. LIKEWISE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N27W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC LOW.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA