000 AXNT20 KNHC 021805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON DEC 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 04N33W 06N47W 05N52W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 05N-08N E OF 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 18W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N91W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE E PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR 16N101W EXTENDS INTO THE GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING W-NW WIND FLOW ALOFT THAT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH INTO THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 93W. HOWEVER...N OF 29N E OF 89W AS WELL AS S OF 27N DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC WIND IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE TOWARDS THE WESTERN- CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGHOUT WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE E PACIFIC IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND HONDURAS COASTLINES. FARTHER EAST...THE AXIS OF AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC NEAR 22N66W...SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND NICARAGUA TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 07N92W. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N66W TO 19N70W TO 15N74W WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SOUTHERN HAITI AND HISPANIOLA NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 68W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH WED WITH TRADE WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. ...HISPANIOLA... THE AXIS OF AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC NEAR 22N66W...SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND NICARAGUA TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 07N92W. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N66W TO 19N70W TO 15N74W WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SOUTHERN HAITI AND HISPANIOLA NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W-NW UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH COULD AMPLIFY OVER HAITI AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SE TO THE SW N ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT AT 02/1500 UTC IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N78W SW TO EASTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 28N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO 27N77W TO 25N79W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 68W- 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 68W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 29N44W TO 25N41W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. OTHERWISE...IN THE EASTERN ATLC A 1004 MB LOW N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N20W TO 26N18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 15W-17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR