000
AXNT20 KNHC 020550
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST MON DEC 2 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
14N17W TO 06N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 06N25W TO 04N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 26W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 
19N100W IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY DRY N-NW FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDINESS 
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER THE COASTAL 
GULF PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SE U.S. 
TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH 
CENTERED OVER ALABAMA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE 
CENTER OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD 
INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATER TODAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN 
FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TONIGHT AND TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GULF THEN SPREAD EASTWARD WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                       
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AND TRANQUIL 
UNDER MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT. 
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE W-SW AND DIFFLUENT OVER 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH 67W-68W IS GENERATING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED 
SHOWERS E OF 68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FOUND IN THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. A  
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH WED 
WITH TRADE WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                       
RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE 
MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE WHICH ARE DRIFTING 
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS INDICATED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 23N67W TO 20N70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 
67W EXTENDING TO NEAR 20N IS SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED 
FROM 30N64W SW TO 27N70W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH MARGINAL DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING A LARGE 
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 
52W-68W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM 1017 MB 
LOW NEAR 32N80W TO THE COAST OF S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. COASTAL 
RADARS SHOW FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN EXTENSIVE UPPER CLOUDINESS. 
A DEEP LAYER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N26W SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA 
OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MERGE 
AND CONSOLIDATE N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 34N25W LATER TODAY. 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 16W-26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL