000 AXNT20 KNHC 011806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN DEC 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 05N32W TO 05N45W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 26W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 21W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS SW TO THE WESTERN GULF ANCHORED BY SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MEXICO SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE AND PROVIDES W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS STRONG MID- LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE E PACIFIC TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N. OVER THE EASTERN GULF...THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 28N86W TO 22N85W...HOWEVER THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA COVERS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N67W IN THE ATLC...SE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 15N63W. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 64W. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE W-NW FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR PUERTO RICO AND MAY EXTEND TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN WILL SUPPORT WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND MIDDLE-LEVEL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ARE FAVORING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING WEST AND MAY IMPACT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT THROUGHOUT EARLY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 31N80W TO 27N80W TO 25N80W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE N OF 26N W OF 79W. FURTHER EAST...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 30N61W TO 28N68W ENHANCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 59W-67W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N67W IN THE ATLC...SE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 15N63W. THIS TROUGHINESS IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS N OF 19N BETWEEN 60W-68W. A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ENHANCING SHOWERS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 54W-62W. OTHERWISE...A 1002 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N28W EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH SW TO 22N33W WITH NO CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR