000 AXNT20 KNHC 011130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N13W TO 4N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N20W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO LOUISIANA. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW FRESH NE WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ELSEWHERE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S GULF W OF 88W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING NW FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT A SLIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MON WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS. HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND 10-15 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA LIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. TYPICAL DRY SEASON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON...WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS. ...HISPANIOLA... RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS NE OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTING WEST. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 68W. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHEAR LINE...THE REMAINS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM 30N59W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THEN SW TO WEST- CENTRAL CUBA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG 68W IS ENHANCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 58W AND 67W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE AND 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NE OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 64W AND 67W DRIFTING W. A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N29W MOVING ENE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE DISTURBANCE WHICH IS DISPLACING MOST CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW FAR TO THE EAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPICAL DRY SEASON TRADE WIND REGIME PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE W OF 65-70W TODAY. THE LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NE AND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF 30N. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL