000 AXNT20 KNHC 010545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO 6N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 6N22W TO 4N30W TO 5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 15W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO LOUISIANA. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS IN THE SE GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ELSEWHERE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO W OF 95W...AND S OF 23N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NORTHERN YUCATAN. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING NW FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT A BENIGN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MON WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR LINE ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM N OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 20 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND 10-20 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA LIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX. TYPICAL DRY SEASON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN AND MON...WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A FEW PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS. ...HISPANIOLA... RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE ISLAND NEAR PUERTO RICO DRIFTING WEST TOWARD WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 71W. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHEAR LINE...THE REMAINS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM 30N59W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THEN SW TO WEST- CENTRAL CUBA. DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG 71W IS ENHANCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE AND 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE OCCURRING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 65W AND 69W DRIFTING W TOWARD HISPANIOLA. A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N30W IS MOVING E. IT IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 27W PASSING OVER THE AREA...DISPLACING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW FAR TO THE EAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPICAL DRY SEASON TRADE WIND REGIME PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE W OF 65-70W TODAY. THE LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NE AND DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF 30N. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL