000 AXNT20 KNHC 301742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 30 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N21W TO 05N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 15W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 20N97W WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE LAYER STRATOCUMULUS...MUCH OF WHICH IS FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N94W TO 23N97W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 1042 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND FAIR SKIES. A SHEAR LINE HOWEVER STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 23N81W TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W THAT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N W OF 83W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...FRESH E- NE TRADE WINDS PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FOR TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOST CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N. ...HISPANIOLA... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE PRODUCING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TRADE WIND FLOW REGIME. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N74W TO 22N79W AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N59W TO 28N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE AND EXTENDS W-SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N34W THAT SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N33W S- SW TO 15N36W TO 09N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM 17N- 30N BETWEEN 17W-30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 30W-35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN