000
AXNT20 KNHC 300600
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THE AREA OF COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
09N13W TO 08N16W. EASTERN PORTION OF ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N16W 
TO 06N21W TO 06N32W. THE ITCZ STARTS AGAIN NEAR 09N49W AND 
CONTINUES TO 06N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW LARGE SCALE MID 
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH W-NW WINDS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SHALLOW MARINE LAYER 
STRATOCUMULUS. BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM 1042 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTERED WELL NE OF THE AREA NEAR LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. 
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH SUN 
THEN WEAKEN SUN NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE MON AND MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                           
                   
REMNANT DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL 
CUBA TO HONDURAS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY 
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LITTLE ELSE...AS SCATTEROMETER DATA 
AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT DISCONTINUITIES ACROSS 
WHAT REMAINS OF THE DYING FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND 
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING FRESH 
E-NE TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE DRIFTING W ACROSS 
THE E CARIBBEAN AND GENERALLY DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS 
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA TO WEAKEN 
SUN...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY SUN NIGHT AND 
MON. FAIRLY TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND 
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND MOST CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
...HISPANIOLA...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. 
EXPECT TYPICAL DRY SEASON PATTERN TO CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE DAYS 
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE TRADE 
WIND FLOW REGIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
  
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W ACROSS THE 
BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. EXTENSIVE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A 
FEW SHOWERS EXTEND ABOUT 300 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 
1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N39W AND NEARLY 
STATIONARY. IT IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 
40W PASSING OVER THE AREA WHICH IS DISPLACING MOST OF THE CLOUDS 
AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE EAST. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N60W IS EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH 
A TYPICAL DRY SEASON TRADE FLOW REGIME PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS 
THE REGION. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND 
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC WILL 
DRIFT NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL