000 AXNT20 KNHC 300004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THE AREA OF COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO 8N28W AND 11N32W. THE ITCZ IS DISCONTINUOUS AFTER 11N32W. THE ITCZ STARTS AGAIN NEAR 10N46W AND IT CONTINUES TO 6N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 33W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WHAT REMAINS OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO...THAT WAS SUPPORTING AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-YUCATAN PENINSULA FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS ALONG 27N72W 23N72W 20N73W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 31N63W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N63W TO 27N70W TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 22N79W TO 20N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS...AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 26N66W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.16 FOR BERMUDA. THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 25N...FROM MEXICO TO SOUTH FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS...TO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 27N100W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 19N96W... TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W...INCLUDING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS RIGHT ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT 18 HOURS...AND IT CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 70W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 70W. DISORGANIZED WIND FLOW REGIMES COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING OVER THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE SHEAR LINE. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 76W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.12 IN CURACAO...0.10 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N72W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N83W AT THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...10N83W...9N92W AT THE COAST OF PANAMA. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO THE REMNANT INSTABILITY FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT OF 24 HOURS AGO OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT 22N78W 16N84W. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N38W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 53W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...BEYOND 16N60W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD A 14N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE 1006 MB LOW CENTER TO 31N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...TO 22N40W AND 16N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 21N22W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 13N30W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE STATIONARY FRONT 31N62W 27N70W 22N78W. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE EAST OF 77W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N40W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N39W TO 16N43W. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY 30N35W TO 28N39W TO 20N49W TO 22N55W TO 27N55W TO 31N51W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT