000 AXNT20 KNHC 291715 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 9N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N18W TO 9N36W TO 11N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 22W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. NE 10-20 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LOW CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF WITH MODERATING COLD AIR ADVECTION. PRESENTLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 40'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES TO THE 70'S OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 22N78W TO E HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W TO SE NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF FRONT. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N73W TO BEYOND SW COSTA RICA AT 8N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADEWINDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUSIDENCE ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 1500 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AT 30N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N74W TO E CUBA NEAR 22N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LOW CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF FRONT. A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N39W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 16N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N39W ENHANCING THE SURFACE SYSTEM. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO 28N35W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA